Strategy switching in the Japanese stock market

This paper discusses the expectation formation process of Japanese stock market professionals and how their expectations are related to larger fluctuations of the TOPIX price than those of economic fundamentals. By utilizing a monthly forecast survey dataset on the TOPIX distributed by QUICK Corporation, we sort forecasters into buy-side and sell-side professionals. We first demonstrate that the buy-side and sell-side professionals use both fundamental and technical trading strategies throughout their expectation formation processes and that they switch between fundamental and technical trading strategies over time. We then empirically show that strategy switching is key in understanding the persistent deviation of the TOPIX from the fundamentals

Belief changes and expectation heterogeneity in buy-and sell‐side professionals in the Japanese stock market

We document the determinants of the expectation heterogeneity of stock price forecasters on the TOPIX. Monthly panel data surveyed by QUICK Corporation in the Nikkei Group is utilized in the process. We examine the determinants of expectation heterogeneity by categorizing　our sample into buy-side and sell-side professionals，and demonstrate that expectation heterogeneity arises as a result of the co-existence of different types ofprofessionals within the same market. We show that the buy-side and the sell-side professionals，who have different business goals，differentiate the information contents as well as their interpretations of the same information in their forecasts，contributing to the expectation heterogeneity. In addition, we investigate the interactive expectations formulation of buy-side and sell-side professionals. We find that buy-side professionals incorporate the sell side’s ideas regarding the future stock prices into their own forecasts，although they exclusively refer to their own ideas when relating foreign exchange rates to the future stock prices. Meanwhile, sell-side professionals tend to utilize buy-side professionals\u27 ideas about future prices in order to improve their research and ingratiate themselves to their clients,i.e.,the buy-side professionals. We demonstrate that this interactive expectations formulation also contributes to the generation of the expectation heterogeneity

Cross-Speaker Emotion Transfer for Low-Resource Text-to-Speech Using Non-Parallel Voice Conversion with Pitch-Shift Data Augmentation

Data augmentation via voice conversion (VC) has been successfully applied to low-resource expressive text-to-speech (TTS) when only neutral data for the target speaker are available. Although the quality of VC is crucial for this approach, it is challenging to learn a stable VC model because the amount of data is limited in low-resource scenarios, and highly expressive speech has large acoustic variety. To address this issue, we propose a novel data augmentation method that combines pitch-shifting and VC techniques. Because pitch-shift data augmentation enables the coverage of a variety of pitch dynamics, it greatly stabilizes training for both VC and TTS models, even when only 1,000 utterances of the target speaker's neutral data are available. Subjective test results showed that a FastSpeech 2-based emotional TTS system with the proposed method improved naturalness and emotional similarity compared with conventional methods.Comment: Submitted to Interspeech 202